Why I'm not sold on the Avalanche

Through his first eleven games, Patrick Roy has his team atop the Central Division with a 10-1-0 record after having just beaten teams like the Penguins, Bruins, and Ducks.  Although it's only late October, many publications and analysts are buying Colorado's stock right now by putting them near the top of all power rankings this week (LINK).  Are the Avs, the team that finished with the second-to-last record, a legitimate force to be reckoned with this year?  By digging deeper and using some "advanced stats", I'm here to tell you no.

If you aren't familiar with Corsi, you need to be.  Here's how Hockey Prospectus defines the Corsi stat:

Corsi is
essentially a plus-minus statistic that measures shot
attempts. A player receives a plus for any shot attempt
(on net, missed, or blocked) that his team directs at
the opponent's net, and a minus for any shot attempt
against his own net. A proxy for possession.

Why people use Corsi is basically because it can be a pretty good indicator of future success.  Another key stat that has become popular in the last few years is PDO (which stands for absolutely nothing).  PDO is simply on-ice shooting percentage plus off-ice save percentage.  PDO can measure "luckiness" because every shot either results in a save or goal, so PDO should heavily regress to 100%.  If Team A has a PDO of 105%, the team should come back down to Earth.  If Team B has a PDO of 95%, the team's luck should increase.

Okay, now that we got that out of the way, here's why the I'm not sold on the Avs yet.

Colorado's 47.7 5v5 CF% (Corsi for percentage) ranks in the bottom third of the league, 24th to be exact.  The six teams below them?  Panthers, Islanders, Flames, Oilers, Leafs (who somehow have a decent record), and Sabres.  In their eleven games, in only four of them were they better Corsi-wise and in the Pittsburgh game, arguably their biggest win of the year, they had a dismal CF% of 35.3.

Individually, this year's first overall pick Nathan MacKinnon is really struggling, posting a 39.5 CF% despite being one of the team leaders for points.  Landeskog, Parenteau, and Mitchell all have at least 7 points, but have negative Corsi so far this season.

Perhaps the biggest reason why the Avalanche aren't as good as their record is their PDO number.  Right now, Colorado's 5v5 close PDO is 107.1 which is the second highest in the league.  This means that their almost flawless record has been aided by lots of luck.  Their success can't be sustained.  It's not like they've been lucky, but have dominating play like say the Bruins.  It's been the opposite.

They've been outplayed and have had luck on their side which means they're due for a tough stretch.

Central Division Power Rankings: Mid-October

We're not even ten games in yet, but below is Indian Head Sweater's first central division power rankings.  Unlike most power rankings, these rankings aren't all that heavily based off of the standings/records, but instead more advanced stats that help paint a truer picture.  I'll try and post a new set of rankings about every other week.  Agree or disagree?  Comment below.

1. Chicago Blackhawks:  Yea, the Hawks are behind the Blues and Avalanche in the standings right now, but I still think most would agree that they're the team to beat in the conference (and probably league).  There are problems that need to be fixed, but I'm not worried at all about the losses to the Bolts and Blues.  The Blackhawks have the third-highest CF% and they've been the better team in all of their games except against the Blues, which was pretty damn even.

2. St. Louis Blues:  Everybody knows the Blues are going to be a good team this year.  Their 106.9 PDO (measures luckiness) is the highest in the league, but I wouldn't be too concerned about that if I was a Blues fan.  Why?  Because they've been better Fenwick-wise in every game they've played so far.  You could make the case for the Blues being at the top spot, but I don't think in the middle of October, you can put them ahead of the defending Stanley Cup champs.

3. Colorado Avalanche:  Avs fans couldn't have asked for a better start as Patrick Roy is perfect through his first five games.  So why am I putting them third?  Because I don't think the "advanced stats" tell the same story.  Their PDO is the fourth-highest in the league and their 5v5 CF% is well below average at 45.4% (25th in the league).  They were thoroughly outplayed by the Bruins, but still won.  They were -10 5v5 Corsi against the Ducks in their opener, but still won by 5 goals.  Rookie Nathan MacKinnon may lead the team in points (6) and getting his share in the headlines, but his Rel CF% is second-to-last on the team (-13.5).

4. Minnesota Wild:  The Wild only have a pair of wins, but there should be a lot of optimism in Minnesota.  They lead the entire league right now in CF% (60.8) and they're getting great contributions from their top players.  Koivu and Parise are #1 and #2 league-wide in CF% and Ballard and Niederreiter are also in the top 10.  I think they're better than the Avs, but I can't bring myself to putting an undefeated team fourth in their own division.

5. Nashville Predators:  There is quite a gap between the top four teams and the bottom three right now.  Along with that, there isn't much separation down here and you could make the case for the bottom three being in any order.  The Preds have the worst record, but are ahead of both the Stars and Jets in Corsi and Fenwick.

6. Dallas Stars:  The Stars are in the bottom third of the league in Corsi and that number may come down this week with games against the Avs, Sharks, and Kings.  Very tough stretch.

7. Winnipeg Jets:  When it comes to Corsi, the Jets through six games are the worst in the division.  Only three players (Tangradi, Frolik, and Enstrom) have a CF% over 50.  On top of that, Winnipeg's top line of Ladd-Little-Wheeler is off to a rough start with Little being the only one with a positive Rel CF% (and it's only 2.2).