Why I'm not sold on the Avalanche

Through his first eleven games, Patrick Roy has his team atop the Central Division with a 10-1-0 record after having just beaten teams like the Penguins, Bruins, and Ducks.  Although it's only late October, many publications and analysts are buying Colorado's stock right now by putting them near the top of all power rankings this week (LINK).  Are the Avs, the team that finished with the second-to-last record, a legitimate force to be reckoned with this year?  By digging deeper and using some "advanced stats", I'm here to tell you no.

If you aren't familiar with Corsi, you need to be.  Here's how Hockey Prospectus defines the Corsi stat:

Corsi is
essentially a plus-minus statistic that measures shot
attempts. A player receives a plus for any shot attempt
(on net, missed, or blocked) that his team directs at
the opponent's net, and a minus for any shot attempt
against his own net. A proxy for possession.

Why people use Corsi is basically because it can be a pretty good indicator of future success.  Another key stat that has become popular in the last few years is PDO (which stands for absolutely nothing).  PDO is simply on-ice shooting percentage plus off-ice save percentage.  PDO can measure "luckiness" because every shot either results in a save or goal, so PDO should heavily regress to 100%.  If Team A has a PDO of 105%, the team should come back down to Earth.  If Team B has a PDO of 95%, the team's luck should increase.

Okay, now that we got that out of the way, here's why the I'm not sold on the Avs yet.

Colorado's 47.7 5v5 CF% (Corsi for percentage) ranks in the bottom third of the league, 24th to be exact.  The six teams below them?  Panthers, Islanders, Flames, Oilers, Leafs (who somehow have a decent record), and Sabres.  In their eleven games, in only four of them were they better Corsi-wise and in the Pittsburgh game, arguably their biggest win of the year, they had a dismal CF% of 35.3.

Individually, this year's first overall pick Nathan MacKinnon is really struggling, posting a 39.5 CF% despite being one of the team leaders for points.  Landeskog, Parenteau, and Mitchell all have at least 7 points, but have negative Corsi so far this season.

Perhaps the biggest reason why the Avalanche aren't as good as their record is their PDO number.  Right now, Colorado's 5v5 close PDO is 107.1 which is the second highest in the league.  This means that their almost flawless record has been aided by lots of luck.  Their success can't be sustained.  It's not like they've been lucky, but have dominating play like say the Bruins.  It's been the opposite.

They've been outplayed and have had luck on their side which means they're due for a tough stretch.

Game 6: A #fancystats preview of the Hurricanes

Mr. Jeff Skinner

Onto game 6 where the Hawks travel to Carolina to take on the Hurricanes.  The game starts at 6:00 CST and can be viewed on CSN.  Quick hits below.

• The Canes are 22nd in the league in both 5v5 CF% and FF%.
• They've lost Fenwick-wise in every game this year except in their 2-1 win against the lowly Flyers.
• Here's a really weird stat:  4th-liner Drayson Bowman leads the team in CF% at 53.3.
• Assuming Bowman's stats aren't truly indicative of his talent level, Jordan Staal may be the best forward on the Canes with a 52.9 CF%. 
• Jeff Skinner leads the team in points with 6 points.  A reason for his early season success?  Skinner leads the team in Oz%, starting close to 60% of the time in the offensive zone.  Along with that, the 21-year old has posted a 49.2 CF% and an unsustainable PDO of 111.3.
• With the depth of the Blackhawks, they should really be able to exploit Carolina's bottom defensive pairing of Murphy and Harrison.  As you can see in the player usage chart, those two have really bad early in the season.  They start almost 60% of the time in the offensive zone, face relatively the weakest competition, yet both have negative Corsi numbers.  Yikes.
• Lastly, the player usage chart:

(click to enlarge)

Game 3: A quick #fancystats preview of the Blues

Finally, some hockey.  The Hawks will be in St. Louis tonight taking on their perhaps biggest rival (with Detroit gone) at 7:00 CST on NBCSN.  As the title suggests, below is just a quick view of the Blues using advanced stats.  Remember, the sample size is pretty small.

• Through the first two games of the season, the Blues are in the bottom third of the league in CF% (Corsi For) at 48.7%.
• Although their Corsi is underwhelming so far, the Blues are still 2-0 and have a +5 5v5 goal differential.  How?  They're perhaps the "luckiest" team in the league so far, posting a league-leading PDO of 110.7 and shooting percentage of 15.6%.
• The Blues' top line of Steen-Backes-Oshie is off to a pretty nice start.  As the player usage chart shows, they've faced the best competition (of course, it was against the Preds and Panthers) and have started in the offensive zone around only 30% of the time, yet they still all have positive Relative Corsi.
• The same can be said for STL's top defensive pairing; Bouwmeester and Pietrangelo.
• Newly acquired forward Brenden Morrow has been solid through his first two games as a member of the Blues, leading the team in CF% (60.6) and Corsi Rel.
• The player usage chart:

Click the picture to enlarge or click here.