PDO and Corsi can be good indicators of success and can help paint the picture for the future (especially PDO). I've already explained Corsi and PDO is simply the shooting percentage (Sh%) plus save percentage (Sv%) at even strength. Since every shot in any game has two results (a goal or a save), the average PDO should be 1000. With that known, we can determine if a player or team is lucky by looking at their PDOs (if a team is getting lucky, their PDO should be higher than 1000). That was a rather quick explanation, for a more in depth one, check out this. Now let's use these stats to look what the future may hold for Bryan Bickell.
We all know Bickell had a fantastic season last year. He had nine goals and 14 assists in 48 regular season games, but he really shined in the playoffs. His nine goals, eight assists, and +11 rating in the playoffs helped him earn some Conn Smythe discussion and eventually a four-year, $16 million dollar contract. Bickell is definitely a bright spot heading into the future, but Blackhawk fans should not expect those kind of numbers next year.
Bickell got a little luck in the regular season, but was overwhelmed with luck in the playoffs. As discussed above, the average PDO is 1000. So what was Bickell's PDO in the 2013 playoffs? 1064. His had the highest on the team with a minimum of 10 games played and was 26 points above Handzus, who was second in terms of PDO. And it wasn't really the result of awesome goaltending (he had an average Sv%), but insead posted a 13.86 Sh%, far and away the highest on the team.
What is maybe even more interesting is his playoff Corsi. He started most of the time in the offensize zone (65.2 OZ%), didn't face elite competition (a Corsi Rel QoC of +.408), but still registered a negative Corsi Rel of 5.7
Like I said, Bickell should be a good player for the Hawks in the future, but if you're expecting 2013 playoffs Bryan Bickell for the next four years, you're probably going to end up pretty disappointed.
Like I said, Bickell should be a good player for the Hawks in the future, but if you're expecting 2013 playoffs Bryan Bickell for the next four years, you're probably going to end up pretty disappointed.
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