Why I'm not sold on the Avalanche

Through his first eleven games, Patrick Roy has his team atop the Central Division with a 10-1-0 record after having just beaten teams like the Penguins, Bruins, and Ducks.  Although it's only late October, many publications and analysts are buying Colorado's stock right now by putting them near the top of all power rankings this week (LINK).  Are the Avs, the team that finished with the second-to-last record, a legitimate force to be reckoned with this year?  By digging deeper and using some "advanced stats", I'm here to tell you no.

If you aren't familiar with Corsi, you need to be.  Here's how Hockey Prospectus defines the Corsi stat:

Corsi is
essentially a plus-minus statistic that measures shot
attempts. A player receives a plus for any shot attempt
(on net, missed, or blocked) that his team directs at
the opponent's net, and a minus for any shot attempt
against his own net. A proxy for possession.

Why people use Corsi is basically because it can be a pretty good indicator of future success.  Another key stat that has become popular in the last few years is PDO (which stands for absolutely nothing).  PDO is simply on-ice shooting percentage plus off-ice save percentage.  PDO can measure "luckiness" because every shot either results in a save or goal, so PDO should heavily regress to 100%.  If Team A has a PDO of 105%, the team should come back down to Earth.  If Team B has a PDO of 95%, the team's luck should increase.

Okay, now that we got that out of the way, here's why the I'm not sold on the Avs yet.

Colorado's 47.7 5v5 CF% (Corsi for percentage) ranks in the bottom third of the league, 24th to be exact.  The six teams below them?  Panthers, Islanders, Flames, Oilers, Leafs (who somehow have a decent record), and Sabres.  In their eleven games, in only four of them were they better Corsi-wise and in the Pittsburgh game, arguably their biggest win of the year, they had a dismal CF% of 35.3.

Individually, this year's first overall pick Nathan MacKinnon is really struggling, posting a 39.5 CF% despite being one of the team leaders for points.  Landeskog, Parenteau, and Mitchell all have at least 7 points, but have negative Corsi so far this season.

Perhaps the biggest reason why the Avalanche aren't as good as their record is their PDO number.  Right now, Colorado's 5v5 close PDO is 107.1 which is the second highest in the league.  This means that their almost flawless record has been aided by lots of luck.  Their success can't be sustained.  It's not like they've been lucky, but have dominating play like say the Bruins.  It's been the opposite.

They've been outplayed and have had luck on their side which means they're due for a tough stretch.

Reviewing Brandon Pirri

Three games after being called up from Rockford, Brandon Pirri has made the best of his limited minutes by scoring a pair of goals and adding an assist.  Below is an in depth break down of Pirri's last two games (against the Blues and Leafs) by linemates, deployment, Corsi, and other statistics.

vs St. Louis

First period:

Saad-Shaw

Saad-Shaw

Saad-Shaw (Pirri's goal)

Saad-Kane

Second Period:

Saad-Kane

Saad-Kane

Saad-Shaw

Saad-Shaw

Saad-Shaw

Third Period:

Saad-Shaw

Sharp-Kane

Saad-Shaw

Totals:

9:34 TOI

12 shifts

47.8 average shift time

Notes:  Against the Blues, Pirri did score his first goal, but his Corsi numbers, along with Saad's (his linemate) weren't pretty (both had a 36.4 CF%).  A good explanation for such low numbers?  Pirri primarily started in the defensive and neutral zones.  His 28.6 OZst% was the second-lowest on the team behind Saad who he was skating with the entire night.  So while Pirri's Corsi in this game may be alarming, considering the fact that he was playing some "tough minutes", against a good team, as an offense-first player, this shouldn't be surprising.

vs Toronto

First Period:
Nordstrom-Bollig
Nordstrom-Bollig
Nordstrom-Bickell
Hossa-Saad (PP)

Second Period:
Nordstrom-Bollig
Nordstrom-Bollig
Nordstrom-Bollig
Nordstrom-Bollig
Saad-Hossa (Pirri's PP goal)

Third Period:
Shaw-Bickell
Shaw-Bickell
Shaw-Bickell
Nordstrom-Bollig
Shaw-Kruger

Totals:
9:37 TOI
14 shifts
41.2 average shift time

Notes:  After being on a line with Shaw and Saad, Pirri spent most of the night on the fourth line with Nordstrom and Bollig against the Leafs until later in the game.  He posted a 56.3 CF% against the Leafs, but had a -9.9 Corsi Rel% as Nordstrom and Bollig both were better Corsi-wise.  Is there an explanation for his low relative Corsi?  I think so.  As you can see above, Pirri spent the majority of the third teamed up with Shaw and Bickell which got him a couple more minutes of ice time than Nordstrom and Bollig.  With a two goal lead and in control of the game, the Blackhawks strategy toward the end of the game was presumably more defensive which would lead to less shots for the Hawks.  This should lead to lesser Corsi and if we look at Pirri's 5v5 close Corsi, we see that this was the case (he actually had a higher Corsi Close than Nordy and Bollig).

Conclusion/Opinion

If you go to ExtraSkater.com or Behindthenet.ca and briefly glance at Corsi, you'll see that despite his three points in three games, Pirri is struggling.  However, after doing some digging, there are various reasons why his stats are so poor.  This leads me to think that Quenneville, who is obviously a great coach and a guy I trust by default, isn't using Pirri correctly.

I'm not necessarily advocating that he centers the second line (although I want to see it), but Q should be putting Pirri in better situations.  Against St. Louis, he was sending out Pirri, an offense-first player with suspect defense, mostly in the neutral and defensive zones against a pretty good team.  Obviously he's going to struggle.  Against Toronto, he put him with arguably the two worst forwards on the team which prevented Pirri from using his assets.

With a team that just won the Cup and it being October, Pirri's role on the team is perhaps the biggest question mark surrounding the Hawks.  And on this topic, I think I'm against the two-time Stanley Cup winning coach.

Game 6: A #fancystats preview of the Hurricanes

Mr. Jeff Skinner

Onto game 6 where the Hawks travel to Carolina to take on the Hurricanes.  The game starts at 6:00 CST and can be viewed on CSN.  Quick hits below.

• The Canes are 22nd in the league in both 5v5 CF% and FF%.
• They've lost Fenwick-wise in every game this year except in their 2-1 win against the lowly Flyers.
• Here's a really weird stat:  4th-liner Drayson Bowman leads the team in CF% at 53.3.
• Assuming Bowman's stats aren't truly indicative of his talent level, Jordan Staal may be the best forward on the Canes with a 52.9 CF%. 
• Jeff Skinner leads the team in points with 6 points.  A reason for his early season success?  Skinner leads the team in Oz%, starting close to 60% of the time in the offensive zone.  Along with that, the 21-year old has posted a 49.2 CF% and an unsustainable PDO of 111.3.
• With the depth of the Blackhawks, they should really be able to exploit Carolina's bottom defensive pairing of Murphy and Harrison.  As you can see in the player usage chart, those two have really bad early in the season.  They start almost 60% of the time in the offensive zone, face relatively the weakest competition, yet both have negative Corsi numbers.  Yikes.
• Lastly, the player usage chart:

(click to enlarge)

Central Division Power Rankings: Mid-October

We're not even ten games in yet, but below is Indian Head Sweater's first central division power rankings.  Unlike most power rankings, these rankings aren't all that heavily based off of the standings/records, but instead more advanced stats that help paint a truer picture.  I'll try and post a new set of rankings about every other week.  Agree or disagree?  Comment below.

1. Chicago Blackhawks:  Yea, the Hawks are behind the Blues and Avalanche in the standings right now, but I still think most would agree that they're the team to beat in the conference (and probably league).  There are problems that need to be fixed, but I'm not worried at all about the losses to the Bolts and Blues.  The Blackhawks have the third-highest CF% and they've been the better team in all of their games except against the Blues, which was pretty damn even.

2. St. Louis Blues:  Everybody knows the Blues are going to be a good team this year.  Their 106.9 PDO (measures luckiness) is the highest in the league, but I wouldn't be too concerned about that if I was a Blues fan.  Why?  Because they've been better Fenwick-wise in every game they've played so far.  You could make the case for the Blues being at the top spot, but I don't think in the middle of October, you can put them ahead of the defending Stanley Cup champs.

3. Colorado Avalanche:  Avs fans couldn't have asked for a better start as Patrick Roy is perfect through his first five games.  So why am I putting them third?  Because I don't think the "advanced stats" tell the same story.  Their PDO is the fourth-highest in the league and their 5v5 CF% is well below average at 45.4% (25th in the league).  They were thoroughly outplayed by the Bruins, but still won.  They were -10 5v5 Corsi against the Ducks in their opener, but still won by 5 goals.  Rookie Nathan MacKinnon may lead the team in points (6) and getting his share in the headlines, but his Rel CF% is second-to-last on the team (-13.5).

4. Minnesota Wild:  The Wild only have a pair of wins, but there should be a lot of optimism in Minnesota.  They lead the entire league right now in CF% (60.8) and they're getting great contributions from their top players.  Koivu and Parise are #1 and #2 league-wide in CF% and Ballard and Niederreiter are also in the top 10.  I think they're better than the Avs, but I can't bring myself to putting an undefeated team fourth in their own division.

5. Nashville Predators:  There is quite a gap between the top four teams and the bottom three right now.  Along with that, there isn't much separation down here and you could make the case for the bottom three being in any order.  The Preds have the worst record, but are ahead of both the Stars and Jets in Corsi and Fenwick.

6. Dallas Stars:  The Stars are in the bottom third of the league in Corsi and that number may come down this week with games against the Avs, Sharks, and Kings.  Very tough stretch.

7. Winnipeg Jets:  When it comes to Corsi, the Jets through six games are the worst in the division.  Only three players (Tangradi, Frolik, and Enstrom) have a CF% over 50.  On top of that, Winnipeg's top line of Ladd-Little-Wheeler is off to a rough start with Little being the only one with a positive Rel CF% (and it's only 2.2).

Game 3: A quick #fancystats preview of the Blues

Finally, some hockey.  The Hawks will be in St. Louis tonight taking on their perhaps biggest rival (with Detroit gone) at 7:00 CST on NBCSN.  As the title suggests, below is just a quick view of the Blues using advanced stats.  Remember, the sample size is pretty small.

• Through the first two games of the season, the Blues are in the bottom third of the league in CF% (Corsi For) at 48.7%.
• Although their Corsi is underwhelming so far, the Blues are still 2-0 and have a +5 5v5 goal differential.  How?  They're perhaps the "luckiest" team in the league so far, posting a league-leading PDO of 110.7 and shooting percentage of 15.6%.
• The Blues' top line of Steen-Backes-Oshie is off to a pretty nice start.  As the player usage chart shows, they've faced the best competition (of course, it was against the Preds and Panthers) and have started in the offensive zone around only 30% of the time, yet they still all have positive Relative Corsi.
• The same can be said for STL's top defensive pairing; Bouwmeester and Pietrangelo.
• Newly acquired forward Brenden Morrow has been solid through his first two games as a member of the Blues, leading the team in CF% (60.6) and Corsi Rel.
• The player usage chart:

Click the picture to enlarge or click here.

Using advanced stats to examine Bryan Bickell's future

PDO and Corsi can be good indicators of success and can help paint the picture for the future (especially PDO).  I've already explained Corsi and PDO is simply the shooting percentage (Sh%) plus save percentage (Sv%) at even strength.  Since every shot in any game has two results (a goal or a save), the average PDO should be 1000.  With that known, we can determine if a player or team is lucky by looking at their PDOs (if a team is getting lucky, their PDO should be higher than 1000).  That was a rather quick explanation, for a more in depth one, check out this.  Now let's use these stats to look what the future may hold for Bryan Bickell.

We all know Bickell had a fantastic season last year.  He had nine goals and 14 assists in 48 regular season games, but he really shined in the playoffs.  His nine goals, eight assists, and +11 rating in the playoffs helped him earn some Conn Smythe discussion and eventually a four-year, $16 million dollar contract.  Bickell is definitely a bright spot heading into the future, but Blackhawk fans should not expect those kind of numbers next year.

Bickell got a little luck in the regular season, but was overwhelmed with luck in the playoffs.  As discussed above, the average PDO is 1000.  So what was Bickell's PDO in the 2013 playoffs?  1064.  His had the highest on the team with a minimum of 10 games played and was 26 points above Handzus, who was second in terms of PDO.  And it wasn't really the result of awesome goaltending (he had an average Sv%), but insead posted a 13.86 Sh%, far and away the highest on the team.

What is maybe even more interesting is his playoff Corsi.  He started most of the time in the offensize zone (65.2 OZ%), didn't face elite competition (a Corsi Rel QoC of +.408), but still registered a negative Corsi Rel of 5.7

Like I said, Bickell should be a good player for the Hawks in the future, but if you're expecting 2013 playoffs Bryan Bickell for the next four years, you're probably going to end up pretty disappointed.

STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS

Advanced Hockey Stats Introduction: Corsi, Corsi Relative, Fenwick, Etc.

We, as hockey fans, know that puck possession is a critical factor in a hockey game.  We also are all familiar with the plus-minus stat in the game.  Corsi is basically a plus-minus stat that is a proxy for puck possession.  Below is a good explanation of what exactly Corsi is from Matchsticks and Gasoline:

At its most basic level, Corsi is the plus/minus amount of shots directed at a net while at even strength-blocked shots, shots high and wide, shots that hit, shots that get tipped, etc. A player who has a positive Corsi has more shots directed towards the opponents net while he is on the ice at even strength then shots directed towards his own net under the same criteria. All 10 players on the ice are used when calculating this metric.

So let's say Patrick Sharp had a Corsi rating of +6 against Detroit one night.  This means that when Sharp was on the ice, he and his teammates (on the ice with him) shot the puck 6 more times at Detroit's net than Detroit shot at the Hawks'.  If Sharp had a -6 rating, this would imply the opposite.

Notice that even if the shot is blocked or isn't on goal, it is still counted toward Corsi.  Why is this? Because even if it was missed, the team still had to have possession in order to shoot it.  Again, Corsi is a proxy for puck possession.

Now there are also other forms of Corsi which I'll get to below.

The first is Corsi Relative.  Corsi Relative is, well...relative because good teams will usually dominate puck possession and shots.  Therefore the stats for players on good teams will be inflated a little.  Corsi Relative is the Corsi of a specific player minus the Corsi of his team when he is not on the ice per 60 minutes.  Last year, Patrick Sharp led the Blackhawks in Corsi Relative at +15.

Next is Corsi Rel QoC.  Because specific players are going to be matched up against the other team's best, their Corsi rating may be a bit skewed.  Relative Corsi Quality of Competition (Corsi Rel QoC) measures the strength of the competition the player is going up against.  It is the Relative Corsi of a player's opponents.  Who faced the toughest competition last year for the Blackhawks?  Brent Seabrook did with a Corsi Rel QoC of 1.522.  Considering Seabrook managed the 7th-highest Corsi Relative (minimum of 40 games) on the team yet faced the hardest competition is impressive.

Now as I've stated above, Corsi includes block shots.  Matt Fenwick from Battle of Alberta didn't like that and came up with is own stat; Fenwick.  Fenwick is the exactly the same as Corsi except it excludes blocked shots as it is a skill.  I will still use Fenwick in this blog, but I agree with Adnan over at Silver Seven in that I prefer Corsi because you are still in the offensive zone and still had enough space to generate a shot.

Anyway, those are the main puck possession stats we will be covering here at BH.  If you have any questions, leave a comment below.